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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2483 (N17W03, Dao/beta) exhibited slight decay, mainly in its trailer and intermediate spots, yet managed to produce a B6 flare, the largest of the period, at 12/0907 UTC. Region 2480 (N04E01, Cso/beta) showed signs of decay in its trailer spots as well yet failed produce anything more than low-level, B-class flares during the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (12-14 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,150 pfu observed at 11/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (12 Jan). An increase in flux of moderate to high levels is expected on days two and three (13-14 Jan) as high solar wind speeds from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) persist. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (12-14 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a continued enhanced solar wind environment. Total magnetic field (Bt) reached a peak value of just over 10 nT, but averaged closer to 6 nT throughout the period. The Bz component was mostly southward for the first half of the period, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from near 480 km/s at the beginning of the period to near 600 km/s by the end, seeing a peak value of 655 km/s at 11/1843 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) with a rotation into the positive (away from the Sun) sector between 11/0030 - 11/0500 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (12-13 Jan) as the CH HSS influence persists. Day three (14 Jan) is expected to see a return to near background levels as the CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with isolated periods of minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions likely on day one (12 Jan), in response to the CH HSS. Day two (13 Jan) is expected to see mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active periods likely. Day three (14 Jan) is expected to see a return to mostly quiet conditions with unsettled levels possible as the influence from the CH HSS wanes.

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