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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2483 (N18W15, Dao/beta) remained the most complex region on the solar disk, but continued to only produce low-level B-class flares over the past 24 hours. Region 2480 (N03W16, Cso/beta) continued to show dissipation in its trailer spots, and was also only responsible for low-level B-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (13-15 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one through three (13-15 Jan) as elevated solar wind speeds persist from the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (13-15 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected continued CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) remained consistent between 3-8 nT, averaging around 6 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was variable, observing a maximum southward deflection to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds fluctuated throughout the period, but kept a fairly steady average near 530 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (13-14 Jan) as the CH HSS influence slowly subsides. Day three (15 Jan) is expected to observe near background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions likely, on day one (13 Jan) under the influence of the CH HSS. As the CH HSS wanes, days two and three (14-15 Jan) are likely to see a return to mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods likely on day two (14 Jan).

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