:Issued: 2004 Oct 20 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41020
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Oct 2004, 1235UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Oct 2004 until 22 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 011
COMMENT: NOAA AR 682 (Catania Sunspot group 39) developed a beta-gamma
configuration and produced a C4.5 flare at 02h13UT last night. Also NOAA AR 685
(Catania Sunspot group 46) is growing significantly. More large C-flaring is
expected, with a chance for an M-flare. The solar wind is still showing coronal
hole signatures, although the wind speed remains low (<450 km/s). Active
geomagnetic conditions (K=4) are possible.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 098
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 007
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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