[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 31 1219 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50131
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 31 Jan 2005, 1152UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 31 Jan 2005 until 02 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Solar activity is gaining momentum due to the birth and fast
growth of Catania sunspot group 16 in the eastern hemisphere. It is still
fairly small, but produced many small flares earlier today. A short time
ago, the first C-class flare was observed from this groups: a C1.3 flare
peaking at 10:51UT. This group is likely to generate further C-class
flares. Also Catania 14 (NOAA 0727) may still produce C-flares.
The geomagnetic conditions are still under the influence of the
trans-equatorial coronal hole now visible in the western hemisphere. The
solar wind speed has further increased in the past few hours, and is now
near 700km/s. The IMF is alternating between north- and southward
orientation. We expect active conditions for the next 24 hours, becoming
quiet thereafter.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 040
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 086
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 012

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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