To: | "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com> |
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Subject: | [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity |
From: | "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com> |
Date: | Wed, 12 Jan 2005 10:18:42 -0500 |
List-post: | <mailto:propagation@contesting.com> |
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 718 (S06E32) produced a very impulsive C1.4 on 11 Jan at 1616Z. Regions 718 and 719 (S07E35) have been combined into Region 718. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 718 continues to show minor plage fluctuations with a fair chance for isolated C-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz has been fluctuating +5 to -5 nT over the last 36 hours, generating periods of active levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. IMF fluctuations associated with a large coronal hole have a potential to cause periods of active levels through 13 Jan. III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jan 094 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 105 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 73, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA Grid Square EL87WX Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W kn4lf@arrl.net Propagation eReflector: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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