[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 15 1223 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50115
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Jan 2005, 1205UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Jan 2005 until 17 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 030

COMMENT: A fast CME was detected by Culgoora. It comes along with the M and
X-flaring activity early in the morning of Jan 15. The sunspot sources 
(Catania
05, 03; NOAA 0720, 0718) are located near the central meridian. We expect 
the
CME to arrive late Jan 16, early Jan 17. Minor storm conditions are 
possible.
Yesterday evening, both the solar wind speed and the total interplanetary
magnetic field increased (negative B_z) with short minor storm conditions as
measured by Izmiran as a consequence.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 092
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 015

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
14  1353  1411 1445 N13E14 M1.8 SF                                  05 0720
14  1602  1606 1614        M1.0       67 V/2                        03 0718
14  1753  1757 1803        M1.5                                     05 0720
14  2108  2126 2139 N15E08 M1.9 2N                                  05 0720
15  0022  0043 0102 N11E10 X1.2 1B    97                            05 0720

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
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KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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